I think this is an interesting (but flawed) analysis of the smartphone market.  Palm is very skilled at not missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.  They turned their back on their (sizeable) Palm OS development base and gambled that they could interest people with web development skills to make their device a success (but then proceeded to screw that up).

Don’t get me wrong - I wanted Palm to succeed, and I think WebOS did a lot of things right.  But given my past experiences with them I believed they wouldn’t succeed.  I wanted Palm to prove me wrong.

The flaw in this research?  I don’t know about Nokia, but I wouldn’t bet against Microsoft.  Unlike Palm, they have deep pockets, and they know how to engage their developer community.  But it is a rough road ahead, and if I was a smartphone device manufacturer I’d probably be working with Google on Android-based devices instead of Microsoft.